Don't Believe The Hype!

“Believe none of what you hear and half of what you see.”

-Benjamin Franklin

Greetings folks and Happy Holidays! I hope you’re in the holiday spirit because I am. I haven’t purchased a tree or gifts yet but I still feel the spirit like a Baptist preacher. Truth be told, I’ve been working too much to make the time. However, rather than complain about not having the time to trim the tree, buy expensive gifts and get into fights with strangers over the last remote control car, I’ve just been thankful for the opportunity and ability to work. Today’s topic is about predictions. I’ve always believed that predictions are like farts, we all make them, however some stink more than others.

People make predictions about everything from the fate of your favorite sports team to elections. Oddly enough, most times people are wrong. I’ve been reading a book “The Signal and The Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail” by Nate Silver which has been really enlightening. Silver is the creator of the website FiveThirtyEight and is notable for his statistical prowess, especially when it comes to elections. In his book he talks about why so many experts get their predictions wrong. In an attempt not to over-simplify the answer or trivialize his brilliant work, I’ll just give one of the many reasons he covers as to why. Nate states that one of the reasons why so many predictions are wrong is due to our inability to take ALL of the facts, only the FACTS, make an OBJECTIVE assessment and then make a decision based on history, indicators and present circumstances.

Take for example the 2008 Presidential election. On the show “The McLaughlin Group” only 1 out of 5 expert panelists accurately predicted that Barack Obama would win the election. Alone this isn’t that big of a deal, even experts get it wrong sometimes. However, at the time of their predictions, precisely two weeks before the election, Barack Obama was leading in every major national poll, every key swing state, including two the Democratic Party hadn’t won in the prior election. It appears as if the panelists took the FACTS, IGNORED the indicators and made a SUBJECTIVE decision. Looking at the totality of the predictions of the panelists over a series of nearly 1,000 predictions, they were found to be just as likely to be wrong as they were right. They’re about as accurate as a coin flip.

Why do we make so many predictions and why are so many of them wrong? I believe the answer to that in part is because we’re eager to be first; first to the moon, first to the finish line, first to the buffet line. Whatever it is, wherever it is, we, especially Americans, want to be first. Furthermore, we’re biased. Every last person on this planet from the Pope to the pauper is biased. We’re all born with certain inherent ideas, which are cultivated through childhood through adulthood and refined by our experiences. No two persons’ experiences are the same, not even twins who share the same bedroom, classes and interests. Therefore, we are fundamentally different people who see things differently. In isolation there is nothing wrong with that. The world thrives on these differences. I enjoy various opinions from different people when I’m faced with a difficult decision. If I only solicited advice and information from my friends who have similar thoughts and beliefs, I would be getting the same opinion as mine and would be likely ignoring key facts. I’d much rather NOT be wrong then to be right. If that means admitting that my initial assessment was incomplete and that my conclusion was wrong, in an effort to get it right, I don’t care.

So many people are predicting when the world is going to end. I think some people are actually beginning to get scared. Can you blame them? The Mayans have a history of being correct and if we look around at all the death, murder and mayhem, it wouldn’t be hard to believe that the end is just around the corner. But what if they’re wrong? What if we’re all panicked for no reason? What if we’re missing out on valuable time we could be spending with family, friends and trying to save the world as opposed to building our fall-out bunker?

Had President Obama listened to all of the pundits, he’d still be just a senator from Illinois, if that. Had Michael Jordan listened to his coaches, he would have been a baseball player or just another kid in North Carolina. If, Abraham Lincoln had listened to his advisors this country may still be divided. The moral of the story is that no one knows when it’s all going to be said and done. No one. Rather than listen to the faulty predictions of others, I’d much rather “run on and see what the end is going to be.” I’ve never been an overly trusting person and I’m not going to start now. What I will do is continue to live my life the way I believe God wants me to and hope and believe that they’re wrong. If they’re right, chalk one up for them. I’ll hi-five them in the afterlife. Until then you should do like Public Enemy and “Don’t Believe The Hype!” Until next time, Stay Up and Be Blessed!